Mar. 13 at 1:15 PM
$PACB Scenarios I'm looking at:
Least likely: Company gets bought out for
$2.80–
$3 if the board sells at near-distress pricing. This likely requires things to deteriorate first, more dilution, the stock drifting toward ~
$0.80, and the board deciding to sell before things get worse.
Strategic acquisition: A large life-science company acquires Pacific Biosciences of California for
$3–
$6, depending on timing and how the installed base and Revio adoption look at the time.
Turnaround: Revio adoption accelerates, consumables revenue scales, and losses begin shrinking. The company becomes far less pressured to sell, and the stock rerates well above current levels on its own merits.
Bear case: Revio adoption disappoints, cash burn persists, company dilutes repeatedly to fund operations. Investor confidence erodes, stock remains depressed for years, and management resorts to leadership changes or restructuring while waiting for either a turnaround or eventual strategic interest.
Place your bets!
