May. 31 at 4:18 PM
$MCRB Good - not even great - irec data will force the market to shift from seeing SER-155 as a standalone asset and price it into the bigger gut barrier / toxicity management / IBD. it doesn't just unlock that asset, but would assign value to SER 147, SER 428, and SER603. A deal then unlocks runway for the VOWST milestones to have a shot at converting.
A conservative estimate of risk adjusted net present value could look something like this:
SER-155 allo-HSCT:
$120-200M
SER-155 irEC:
$80-130M
SER-603:
$35-65M
SER-147:
$20-50M
LBP-LF:
$10-25M
Potential VOWST milestones:
$30-70M
Platform premium: 15%
Total:
$340-620M
Which gives us roughly
$36-64 per share before any dilution.
Makes complete sense that MCRB is betting it all here VS settling for a deal that values them just at the 155 allo HSCT number.
