Feb. 18 at 10:25 PM
PickAlpha Midday:
Carvana’s Q4 print was strong on growth but missed where it matters: adj. EBITDA
$511M vs ~
$536M Street as non-vehicle opex + depreciation ran hotter than expected, sending the stock ~24% lower after-hours. Retail unit economics softened too (GPU
$3,076, -
$255) and EBITDA margin slipped ~1pp YoY, while management flagged reconditioning costs staying elevated even as it adds ADESA capacity with new production targeted for early 2027.
Tickers:
$CVNA $KMX
Our view is the tape is saying “growth is fine, but prove the cost curve.” If GPU stabilizes and opex per unit re-levers down next quarter, the stock can bounce hard; if cost creep persists and profit remains heavily tied to loan-sale mechanics, the multiple de-rates further.
