Jan. 12 at 2:03 AM
$GSM $TSLA $INTC
Bullish Scenario (20–30% Probability)
• Final trade rulings significantly curb unfair imports.
• Pricing power improves in silicon metal.
• Demand rebounds in key end markets (solar/automotive).
• GSM maintains operating leverage and margins expand.
12-month price range:
$7.00 –
$9.00+
⸻
Base Case (45–55% Probability)
• Trade protection benefits are modest or delayed.
• Demand remains mixed but avoids further deterioration.
• Stock trades in line with moderate improvements.
• Analysts converge near current price with some upside.
12-month price range:
$5.50 –
$7.00
⸻
Bearish Outcome (25–35% Probability)
• Cyclical demand weakness persists.
• Imports continue to pressure pricing despite trade rulings.
• Earnings stays soft → downgrades accelerate.
12-month price range:
$3.50 –
$5.00
