Oct. 25 at 4:34 PM
$BHVN Flagship drug: Troriluzole (BHV‑4157) for Spinocerebellar Ataxia (SCA); first‑in‑class therapy with Q4 2025 FDA decision expected.
Pipeline overview: 5 programs total; most advanced 2 are Troriluzole (≈85% approval likelihood) and BHV‑7000 (≈65%).
Patient population (TAM): 15,000–20,000 SCA patients in U.S.; ≈35,000–40,000 globally eligible for Orphan use.
Serviceable (SAM): About 60% are diagnosed and accessible through neurology centers → ≈9,000 U.S. and ≈20,000 global patients.
Orphan‑drug pricing: Based on peer comparables (Skyclarys ≈
$370K, Spinraza ≈
$350K, Relyvrio ≈
$158K), Troriluzole likely around
$200,000/year.
Market penetration: 50% in the U.S., 30% ex‑U.S. within 5 years; net treated ≈4,500 U.S. and 6,000 ex‑U.S. patients by 2029.
Peak revenue (U.S.): 4,500 ×
$200,000 =
$900 million.
Peak global revenue: 6,000 ×
$160,000 (average discounted ex‑U.S. price) =
$960 million.
