Aug. 10 at 2:20 AM
$APAM 📉 Short Thesis: Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM)
STARTING a short position on APAM timed for entry at the bell the day before its ex-dividend date (August 14, 2025). This setup is based on a combination of dividend run-up behavior, valuation stress, and flat fundamentals, all converging near top-side resistance.
🧠 Why We’re Shorting
Dividend Run-Up: leading into its August 15 ex-dividend yield chasers, WILL CLIMB BETEEN NOW AND THEN
Resistance Zone: Just below its 52-week high
Flat Earnings: The last two quarters have shown no meaningful growth.
Revenue Slide: Revenue has consistently remained under
$300M. it slid from
$292M to
$274M, confirming stagnation.
Valuation Disconnect: With a Price-to-Book ratio of 8.51, APAM is trading at a premium
🧨 Behavioral Framing
The dividend run-up is a setup for a post-dividend unwind, and we’re positioning to capture that fade.
📅 Execution Plan
Entry: August 14, 2025 (day before ex-dividend)
Target:
$43.00–
$44.00 fade
