Sep. 10 at 6:56 PM
$AA No Economic Advantage Without External Support aka (Gov't/Trump)
🔻 Tariff Burden
U.S. import duties on Canadian aluminum are draining cash—
$115M in Q2 alone.
These tariffs are structural, not cyclical. Unless reversed, they’re a permanent drag.
⚡ Energy Insecurity
Spain’s grid failure and Western Australia’s gas dependency show that Alcoa lacks control over its energy inputs.
They’re not benefiting from cheap or stable energy like some global competitors.
🌍 Environmental Constraints
Their WA mining expansion is facing massive public and regulatory resistance.
ESG backlash could limit access to capital and damage reputation.
📉 Delayed Profitability
San Ciprián won’t be profitable until mid-2026.
Canada’s margin compression and paused projects mean growth is on hold.
🧨 Advocacy Mode = No Leverage
They’re lobbying for grid guarantees, tariff relief, and environmental leniency.
That’s not power—it’s a plea for survival.
