Feb. 4 at 7:49 AM
$RYCEY So the way I'm thinking is that we very clearly beat 2025 guidance, Tufan wouldn't have authorized another 200 million pound interim buyback if back half of 2025 didn't go well..Important number will be the new Buyback and Dividend. If people have a good enough dividend they'll want to cash in. The buyback has to exceed last year's since we brought in more cash in 2025. I'm thinking he needs to announce 1.5 billion, and add on the 200 million he can say 1.8 billion all together, which should be roughly about half the cash they'll pull in for 2026.
The most important will be the 2026 guidance.
Bear Case: 3.5 to 3.7 billion (operating profit and cash both)
Base Case: 3.6 to 3.8 billion (this is what analysts are expecting, neutral to mildly positive stock price action)
Bull case: 3.7 to 3.9 (this is what I think we need to see to continue major rally, 5 - 10% on this news)
In this scenario, during H1 he can say that they are going to meet 2028 targets 2 years early again. Thoughts?