Apr. 16 at 7:43 PM
$PSNL Yes, competition just got tougher. Roche/Foundation Medicine entering MRD with
$595M behind them is real. Natera absorbed Foresight. This isn't the same landscape as 12 months ago.
But MRD isn't winner-take-all. Oncologists will use multiple tests across cancer types.
What Personalis needs is to win enough... not everything.
IO coverage arriving. CRC dossier submitted. Neoadjuvant breast close behind. Tempus driving volume through 50%+ of US oncologists. Biopharma clinical trial revenue growing.
In 2-3 years I see a company with 4-5 covered indications,
$150-200M revenue trajectory, improving margins, and serious acquisition interest.
The bear case is Roche moves faster than expected and IO gets delayed. Thats a real risk.
The bull case is 12 years of evidence, patents competitors pay royalties on and a technology that nobody has beaten head-to-head at scale.
Also, cancer vaccines is something that only PSNL is involved in to. It could be transformational.
