Dec. 4 at 1:38 AM
$POWW – Found a Historical Short Setup That Looks Very Similar to Today
I’ve been digging through past cycles looking for a period where POWW had:
1️⃣ A similar total short interest level (right around 4 million shares)
2️⃣ Similar low average daily volume
My goal was simple:
“How does POWW tend to move when short interest decreases under conditions like the ones we have today?”
I’ve only investigated one historical window so far, but it happens to line up extremely well:
Sept → Oct 2023
During that time:
• Short interest sat just under 4M
• Daily trading volume was very close to today’s thin levels
And the stock reacted with a move from ~
$2.03 → ~
$3.15 (+55%) as shorts unwound into a low-volume environment.
No hype.
No big catalyst.
Just market structure doing what it does when supply is tight and shorts start backing out.
The only reason that run didn’t continue past
$3.15 was the Nov 9 earnings report that crushed sentiment and gave shorts an easy exit. That report — not the market setup — killed the squeeze.
Why today might be even more favorable?
Even though I didn’t use these as criteria, today’s conditions include:
• A tighter float (institutions hold more now than retail did in 2023)
• Price sitting flat and compressing
• Much better fundamentals overall
– marketplace-only business
– clean, current filings
– Nasdaq compliance restored
– ammo segment gone
– Urvan case settled
We still have overhangs (SEC inquiry and Minnesota lawsuit), and I’m not ignoring those.
But short-term price mechanics aren’t driven by those factors.
🎯 The takeaway:
In the one historical period I’ve reviewed so far where short interest and volume matched today’s structure:
POWW moved to
$3.15.
Not saying history guarantees anything,
but this setup has played out before —
and the current backdrop arguably leans more supportive than it did in 2023.
Sometimes the setup itself is the catalyst.
Potential squeeze range:
$3.15 (base case)
→
$3.35–
$3.65 (stronger unwind)
→ up to ~
$4+ if momentum extends.
