Aug. 17 at 8:04 PM
$PORT I'm not an investor in PORT. I believe when buying Class C
$44 a share, $ goes in a trust acct & gets refunded if they don't hit
$44 on day 1 of AGSD shares going public. The chance of being refunded appears to be 100%!! The problem is the
$44/share is based on 35x multiple and
$1.6b valuation. Angels Studios, I believe, loses @ <
$23M> a quarter. So going from
$13/share to
$44/share by 9/30/25, or later if there's an extension, seems . . . impossible. They will have, w/the
$320M, a cash runway that should last them 12 to 13 mos. They could come back with s/t plan to get to pos CF, & that would be a catalyst. Their S-4 filing, could be a catalyst . . . I think that's when institutional investors typically buy in. I'm not saying this is not a good investment, just saying I don't see it hitting
$44/share in the next 12 months . . . let alone on day 1. I do think the chances of this merger falling thru are probably slim, e.g. 15%.