Dec. 6 at 10:23 PM
$FET rig count +7 to 589... 589 is the average over the last 33 weeks. Canada dipping in to YE as per usual. Using
$PDS outlook as a gauge I expect Canada to rip off the YE dip and start 2025 better than 2024. I expect oil rigs to start reasonably well given budgets get replenished and gas rigs to lead that charge based on the forward curve as described in the thread below.
The wildcard is large sellers here. I watch for an unhealthy amount of the day as we get our asses kicked. Honestly I was trying to fill July calls for most of the day... but I want them very cheap so nothing filling. Our volume is severely weighted to buys hitting the ask (which doesn't mean the ask is not coming down with the sector/oil price)... but large orders are filling at the ask very regularly.
Indexes should rebalance on the 20th (quad witching). I'm betting that's the day we clear our sellers (purely speculative).
So far, not seeing OFS activity that's going to meaningfully impact results vs. Q1-Q3.
