Feb. 3 at 4:02 PM
$ARDX 3 potential IP scenarios today.
1. Successful reformulation and clinical development with entry in 2033-2034. My near term price target is still
$16-18 in this scenario.
2. generics and Ardelyx reach settlement to allow entry in 2036-2037. This is quite common in pharma. Price target would stretch to
$25 in this scenario.
3. Ardelyx successfully holds IP until late 2042. Price target is conservatively
$40 in this scenario.
This will take years to play out- so despite “no stock pop” today, there’s a lot of reasons why Ardelyx should be optimistic about scenario 2 and 3. In all scenarios, due to lack of absorption in blood, generics will have to prove their drug works as well as Ibsrela/X as a PK study is useless. Read up on the engineering of Tenapanor and you’ll see why this might be hard for them to succeed at. Generics will have to spend a bit of money in the clinic, then find a way to commercially manufacture (without infringing process patents) and profit on a reduced WAC.
