Mtango
Nov 9, 8:29 PM
$GRPN into Q3 tonight (after the close, call 8am ET tomorrow). Short-interest setup, with the caveats:
📊 12.55m shares short, 48.6% of float (FINRA 15-Oct; the 30-Oct print lands ~10-Nov)
⏳ ~13 days to cover on recent volume
💸 Borrow fee only ~0.9%, so cheap to stay short
🎯 Options price a ~±18% move on the print
🐻 Puts outweigh calls at
$15–17 for Nov-20, plus fresh Dec
$14 put buying on Friday
📍 Newest shorts are in around
$17.50: a close above that puts them underwater. The shorts from ~
$13.30 already are.
A beat that holds above
$17.50 is where covering could kick in. A miss and the cheap borrow lets shorts sit. Options hedging is small (~15k shares per
$1 move), so any squeeze has to come from the short base itself.
Not advice, just the numbers. #shortsqueeze
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