Jul. 11 at 7:43 PM
$AMTX
Claude
+9% as inflation in 2026 for 45Z
Aemetis: ethanol from
$0.33 (told in the last PR)to
$0.36/gal, RNG from
$15.20 to
$16.60/MMBtu; +
$2M a full-year basis. The twist: they already sold their H12026 credits
$12M July 9, priced before this notice. If that deal was on
$1.00 base,
$1.1M of incremental credits from H1 production likely stayed with Aemetis to sell later. P&L-wise, their earned-when-produced policy means the uplift plus Q1 catch-up should land in Q2 revenue (reported in August) with cash following whenever the extra credits are monetized
$ALTO: the smallest impact:
$0.20 →
$0.22/gal on 90M qualifying gallons, so
$1.5–1.6M gross (
$1.3M net) per year. Marginal in absolute terms, but pure upside requiring nothing operationally
$GPRE: on
$200–225M of guided 2026 45Z EBITDA, the adjustment is worth
$18–20M, flowing through as a larger reduction of cogs. Their carbon-capture plants in Nebraska generate the highest per-gallon credits and the 9% multiplies all of it
