Jan. 3 at 11:06 AM
$AMTX Aemetis
BET: cows in California differs from pigs in Washington and dogs in New York
2025 Greet Model consider all animals the same penalizing +80% ultra negative CI
2025 Math: Greet Model for 45Z for RNG:
50-(-51)/50=2,02 * 8,6 =
$17,37 X 500.000 MMBTU =
$8,7 MLN
2026 Math: If Greet model use the same number that AMTX has in California:
50-(-380)/50=8,6 * 8,6 =
$73,96 X 500.000 MMBTU =
$37MLN
Soon we have the number: -51 or -380 or something in middle
Other relevant adds-on:
1) 45Z is given ALSO for ethanol plant; for ILUC, 2026 number is higher than 2025
2) the *8,6 multiplication factor is the current number; after IRS guidance can be the same or increase up to 11.7 generating more 45Z credits
3) IRS guidance could specify if 2025 current guidance is right or not; as of now, as prudent scenario, I do not consider any possible increase for 2025
4) E15 in Iowa + California, hopefully soon in all US. Up ethanol margins
5) OMC are buying biodiesel in India
$ALTO $GPRE $GEVO
