Jan. 1 at 6:09 PM
$AMTX $ALTO $GEVO $GPRE
The biggest facts for biofuels are:
1) $ per 45Z PTC for RNG and Ethanol plant: both of them qualify for 45Z PTC
2) possible E15 in the US: lead +40% increase in demand
About point 1),last year The DOE released the 45ZCF-GREET model and its User Manual on 15 January 2025, following IRS guidance on 10 January 2025
In 2026 I would expect that the Greet Model will be update in January too. The biggest point is to get how many $ we got per MMBTU per RNG (dairy manures from Aemetis has very high negative Carbon Intensity) and how many $ we got per every gallon of ethanol produced at Keyes
Here the main points to check:
1) ethanol plant: CO2 reuse, put correct formula
2) ethanol plant: exclude indirect land-use change
3) RNG: provide distinct emissions rates for specific manures / different animals, and what is the maximum negative scores admitted (as of today it is -51, even if Aemetis CI is -380)
A lot depend on 1), 2):news (positive or negative) are imminent
