Mar. 23 at 5:24 PM
$CPS
(1) The epic realized vol is from hedge funds using dark pools to move into/out of the stock trying to capture big up moves which forces the dark pool operators to hit the lit exchanges with overwhelming algorithmic volume. With low float and volume, this has produced a stock chart which looks like an option chart, and for all intents and purposes a liquidity trap. CPS has high institutional ownership, but flows are what drive price, and it receives minimal stable institutional or passive ETF/index flows. In Q3 and Q4 the company disappointingly missed estimates after increasing guidance and hopefully learned a lesson. 2026 guidance is a game changer. It transforms the company from a cyclical play on production volumes to an idiosyncratic turnaround with a long term call on production volumes and a pent-up replacement cycle. At the midpoint guidance shows
$90M fixed cost takeouts with
$70M improvement to EBITDA on
$59M revenue growth. This models out to a 13.8% GM, 10%
