Sep. 13 at 8:10 PM
$BNGO
The modeling error is the whole trade. Fair value just ticked
$5 →
$6.
They ran BNGO as a normal microcap kit company: no paid code, no utilization loop, cheap-for-a-reason. That model cannot hold 81195 at
$1,853.22, Q2 chips +27% with demand still ahead of the factory, NYSDOH OGM LDTs, and a MolDX draft that says one genome-wide SV assay can replace banding + FISH + CMA.
So the tape sits ~
$1.22 while the assay is already in clinic. Wrong distribution. Wrong multiple.
SWS moving
$5 to
$6 is the spreadsheet flinching — cheaper discount rate on the same name. McCarthy left Buy /
$4 on. First tick, not the destination.
They priced a science project. The maps were already running.
$6 is the model starting to admit it.