May. 21 at 7:20 AM
$ADCT Last time I bought before the data release of a critical phase 3 trial of biotech company, I lost quite a bit of money. The trial failed, the SP tanked, I sold at a loss.
I was intrigued to buy
$ADCT just before the release of the data of the LOTIS-5 trial. I made some research, everything looks promising, until you dive a bit deeper. Will the outcome be good enough to reach statistical significance? Look at the outcome of the recently published data of Regeneron's trial evaluating fianlimab + cemiplimab vs. pembrolizumab (Keytruda) in advanced melanoma: Although the Regeneron regimen numerically improved PFS, it did not reach statistical significance. Same could happen here. Odds are just about 50/50 for the
$ADCT trial to succeed, maybe slightly better.
On the other hand a successful trial is already priced into the valuation of
$ADCT, as they are valued as a robust, growing biotech that will reach profitability soon.
