Jan. 6 at 3:44 PM
$MNKD
$MNKD $UTHR
Just my opinion and my model. Keep in mind this is the economics for the TYVASO DPI IPF portion only. Only thing UTHR is waiting on is Teton 1 confirmation and bridging study alignment with FDA to fully derisk their Crown Jewel 💎.
PUTTING OURSELVES IN UTHR / MARTINE’S SHOES — RENT vs BUY TYVASO DPI (IPF) Economics
Let’s strip emotion out and do pure capital allocation math.
Known facts (non-debatable):
• Tyvaso DPI patents/device runway = 20+ years
• IPF is orphan + high switching costs
• TETON-2 IPF results = best ever recorded
• DPI now validated as franchise, not a product
This is a multi decade annuity, not a short cycle asset.
⸻
IPF MARKET REALITY
• IPF market today: ~
$5.5B
• Long-term steady state:
$10–12B
• Post TETON realistic Tyvaso DPI share: ~40%
➡️ Steady-state Tyvaso DPI IPF revenue: ~
$4B/year
⸻
CURRENT “RENT” STRUCTURE (UTHR → MNKD)
Royalty + manufacturing economics ≈ ~20% leakage
At
$4B/year IPF revenue:
• MNKD gets ≈
$800M/year
• UTHR keeps ≈
$3.2B
That’s an
$800M check every single year.
⸻
20-YEAR COST OF RENTING
• Nominal:
$800M × 20 =
$16B
• Discounted @10%: ~
$7B NPV
That’s just IPF.
Does NOT include:
• PAH DPI growth
• Manufacturing leverage
• Platform value
⸻
NOW THE BUY SCENARIO
MNKD buyout math:
•
$20/share ≈
$6B
•
$25/share ≈
$7.5B
For roughly the same NPV as renting IPF alone, UTHR gets:
• 100% of Tyvaso DPI economics
• Zero royalty leakage — forever
• Full DPI platform control
• Defensive moat vs BI
• Optionality on pipeline
⸻
RENT vs BUY (UTHR VIEW)
RENT:
• ~
$800M/year leakage
• ~
$7B+ NPV cost
• No control
• Strategic risk
BUY:
• One-time ~
$6–7.5B
• Eliminate leakage permanently
• Own franchise for decades
• Control platform + future indications
Break-even: ~8–9 years
Martine doesn’t think in 8-year windows.
She thinks in decades.
⸻
BOTTOM LINE
From UTHR’s perspective:
• Renting Tyvaso DPI is economically irrational long-term
• Buying MNKD is NPV-positive and strategically obvious
• Every year they wait → MNKD gets more valuable
This is not “if” math.
It’s when math.
