Jun. 5 at 10:01 PM
$TTGT revoking my work here. They have revised EBITDA for the Informa contributed businesses from ~
$40M in 2023 to ~
$20M. 2024 was supposed to be
$50M and came in at under
$30M
How they can revise a historical 2023 EBITDA number, one they gave last year to justify this transaction, down 50% is beyond me - sounds like a lawsuit in the making they will lose. The assumed valuation was ~10-16x EBITDA for Informa Tech, which if you apply to their
$20M in EBITDA cuts the valuation in over half. But of course a 20% margin business gets a much higher multiple than a sub 10% margin one, and FORR and ZD are trading at ~2-3x EBITDA. So a terrible Informa business worth maybe ~
$60M combined with an incredible TTGT business by deceiving shareholders into selling, and now the management of the terrible business is running the show. So if this is now a ~4x biz, still a premium to ZD and FORR, the stock goes sub
$4. And that is if you believe the highly adjusted EBITDA from dishonest management
