Dec. 23 at 12:05 PM
KEYBANC WEIGHS IN ON NOVO NORDISK'S PHASE 3 CAGRISEMA RESULTS AND GLP-1 MARKET IMPLICATIONS
Analyst comments: "Friday,
$NVO presented Phase 3 results for its potential obesity treatment, CagriSema. We do not view the potential of the GLP-1 market as significantly changed through 2030 for West Pharmaceutical Services
$WST, Gerresheimer
$GXIG, or Stevanato Group
$STVN.
$GXIG has significant exposure to dual-chamber formats like CagriSema, but the company has indicated that €300M–€350M in GLP-1 sales by 2026 is tied to existing therapeutics and orders. In FY24, GXIG reported over €100M in GLP-1-linked sales, highlighting strong demand independent of CagriSema. If CagriSema is not approved or delayed, revenue could shift to marketed drugs such as Wegovy
$NVO and Zepbound
$LLY. Evaluate Pharma estimates
$22.58B in 2030 CagriSema sales, comparable to Wegovy (~
$20B) and Zepbound (+
$20B).
West Pharmaceutical Services
$WST has minimal exposure to CagriSema but remains well-positioned with facilities aligned to NVO and LLY. Similarly, Stevanato Group
$STVN is ramping up capacity expansions to meet growing GLP-1 demand, with sites supporting both NVO and LLY. Its capacity investments, particularly in Fishers, Indiana, are likely tied to
$LLY, while Southern Italy operations align with CTLT/NVO. STVN's flexibility to repurpose dual-chamber capacity for other GLP-1 products mitigates risk.
The GLP-1 market remains a significant opportunity, growing at a projected 25.2% CAGR through 2028 and reaching
$115B+ in sales by 2030, excluding CagriSema. If CagriSema launches, its sales will likely distribute between
$NVO and
$LLY, maintaining market diversity and supporting broader GLP-1 growth dynamics.
$GXIG,
$STVN, and
$WST are positioned to capitalize on this demand, with or without CagriSema."
Analyst: Paul Knight
