Dec. 17 at 4:46 PM
$PCT repost of a good comment on Reddit:
Valuing PureCycle comes down to scenarios, not guesswork. The company is still early in commercialization, so you model capacity, resin pricing, and expansion, then apply a growth multiple to reflect scaling potential:
• Downside case: Ironton underperforms → <
$100M revenue. At 1–2x sales, ~
$2–3/share. • Base case: Ironton at ~107M lbs/year, resin ~
$1.50–
$2.00/lb →
$160–200M revenue. At 2–3x sales plus a modest growth premium, ~
$6–9/share. • Upside case: Ironton + Gen 2 facilities (Thailand/Belgium, 300M lbs/year) →
$500M+ revenue. With 2–3x sales and a stronger growth multiple, ~
$15–20/share. • Global capture case: If PureCycle secures just 2% of the global polypropylene market (~3.5B lbs), that’s
$4.5–5.2B revenue. Apply 2–3x sales with a growth overlay, and you’re looking at
$100+ per share.
So when you see numbers like
$8 or
$17, they’re shorthand for different scenarios. The real question is which scenario you believe will play out.
