Nov. 21 at 1:11 PM
Jefferies🏁
$MPLT Buy/
$32
KRTX -
$BMY CERE -
$ABBV $NBIX
Jefferies said in its initiation—MPLT has an intriguing Phase II pipeline that could ultimately disrupt the CNS/neuro landscape, starting with ML-007C-MA (oral M1/M4 agonist) in schizophrenia (SCZ) and Alzheimer's disease psychosis (ADP). Second asset ML-004 is an oral 5-HT1B/1D for autism spectrum disorder (ASD).
Each program represents a
$1B+ blockbuster
opportunity, and all of them will have pbo-controlled Phase II data in 2026-27 (3 shots on goal).
As such, we like the risk/reward at
$660M cap, since
$1B+ in peak sales (conservative) x low 2-3x multiple =
$2-3B of value per program (unadjusted), which could be quickly realized over the next 1-2 years.
Also, ML-007's program success could attract Big Pharma attention. Muscarinics in SCZ alone have
been a high-value target, as evidenced by two major M&A deals with
$14B+ for BMY/KRTX (Cobenfy) and
$9B for ABBV/CERE (emracladiine).
