Jun. 3 at 7:31 PM
$KZIA Maxim just raised their target to
$30 on KZIA (from
$20).
Increasing 12-month price target to
$30. Based on Celcuity’s data and the momentum we are seeing in the PI3K/mTOR space, we believe Kazia’s development is further de-risked. Consequently, we are lowering our revenue risk adjustment for paxalisib in our valuation model to 40% from 50%, which increases our 12-month price target to
$30, from
$20.
Valuation. We forecast paxalisib launching for treating newly diagnosed,
unmethylated GBM patients in 2029 and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) in 2030. We apply a 40% (50% prior) revenue risk adjustment to paxalisib based on the stage of development, PDUFA risks, and commercial risks. We do not model the remaining pipeline. A 30% discount rate is then applied to the free cash flow,
discounted EPS, and sum-of-the-parts models, which are equally weighted to derive a 12-month price target of
$30 (
$20 previously).
