Apr. 29 at 3:26 PM
$IMPP $BP $CVX $XOM $EQNR Interesting move by-UAE exits the OPEC oil cartel.
Current production costs of
$40 per barrel could drop to
$15-
$25. If that happens, crude could average near
$35 once the dust settles.
Expect a split into 2 rival oil blocs:
1) new OPEC run by US (UAE, venezuela, Brazil etc) and protected by the United States / Israel alliance.
2)A parallel cartel led by Iran, Oman, and possibly the rest of the Gulf states if they give in to Iran. This bloc would be backed by China, Russia, and Iran.
Using each other’s transport routes for oil, gas/chemicals through seaborne trade would fade. Both blocs would heavily discount sales to nearby partners, undercut each other, and discourage cross-continent buying as vessels face blockades or attacks.
The main question: which side do the oil, gas, chemical shipping companies, tanker fleets/ related stocks choose?
The Gulf states could end up like low-margin export hubs - like factories in china producing whitelabel products..
