Nov. 21 at 6:21 PM
$IMA
Valuation Framework (Atopic Dermatitis Only): three scenarios:
Base Case (Most Probable)
P2b shows clear efficacy improvement vs P2a
EASI-75 in 50–65% range at Week 16
Dosing every 4–8 weeks proves viable
Safety remains clean
Probability of success (P2 → Launch): 35%
Peak AD sales:
$1.5–2.0B
Discount rate: 12–15%
Implied Risk-Adjusted NPV:
$400–650M
Bull Case (Strong P2b Data)
EASI-75 ≥ 70%
Very strong durability
8–12 week dosing viable
Becomes credible mid-tier competitor to Dupixent, Adbry, lebrikizumab
Probability of success: 45–50%
Peak sales:
$2.5–3.5B
Risk-Adjusted NPV:
$900M –
$1.6B
Bear Case (P2b mixed or underperforms)
Assumptions
Efficacy modest (EASI-75 < 45%)
Duration inconsistent
Safety concerns or exposure-limiting AEs
PoS: 10–15%
Peak sales: ~
$800M upper bound
Risk-Adjusted NPV:
$120–200M
