Jun. 18 at 1:21 PM
Here is how I currently see copper:
I am bullish on copper. I am not bullish on every copper price.
Copper is already trading near
$13,700–
$13,800 per tonne, so a meaningful part of the long-term scarcity story is no longer being ignored.
And the next two years may be more complicated than the popular narrative suggests.
ICSG currently expects:
World mine production growth of 1.6% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. Refined copper usage growth of 1.6% and 2.0%.
A refined surplus of roughly 96,000 tonnes in 2026 and 377,000 tonnes in 2027.
That does not look like an immediate shortage. But move further out and the picture changes quickly.
The IEA estimates that announced mining projects could leave copper supply around 30% below demand by 2035. Average ore grades have fallen 40% since 1991.
New mines can take roughly 17 years to move from discovery to production.
And only 5% of the copper discovered during the past 35 years was found in the last decade.
S&P Global expects demand to rise from 28 million tonnes in 2025 to 42 million tonnes by 2040.
Data-center copper demand alone could grow from 1.1 million to 2.5 million tonnes.
My view for the next 12–24 months:
Copper probably does not move higher in a straight line.
A temporary surplus, weaker Chinese activity, higher recycling and crowded positioning can still create sharp corrections.
My working range is roughly
$11,000–
$15,000 per tonne, with moves beyond that possible if major supply disruptions or inventory drawdowns appear.
The long-term thesis remains bullish.
The near-term setup is about price discipline.
That distinction matters, because a great commodity thesis can still become a bad investment when expectations run too far ahead of the physical market.
The question I keep coming back to:
Will investors care more about a 377,000-ton surplus in 2027...
or a potential 10-million-ton supply gap by 2040?
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