Feb. 24 at 6:09 PM
$BLZE
Somehow I’m still up overall on this investment (sold some stock in the previous run up).
I’ve added today with 2027 onwards in mind.
Market clearly doesn’t like high-margin backup business decline (always expected) and is overlooking the Neocloud growth. Now with one deal announced and more expected (probably announced through 2026), I’ve added a small amount to my holding today.
Guided for revenue growth but aEBITDa neutral (likely margin mix due to back up decline and planned CapEx). So 2026 may be a dud year (and guidance was likely a best case scenario that they could miss), but if they announce enough deals the valuation will start to improve looking at 2027+.
There are many advantages, beyond cost, for Neocloud providers to choose Backblaze over others like AWS.
Also:
$50M cash plus the value of their assets (bearing in mind how expensive memory is), with no longer being cash flow negative, suggests there is a hard backstop to valuation decline.
