Jan. 11 at 3:30 AM
$APLS :
🏹 APLS: The "Guidance" Trap & The JPM Reality Check
The bears are chirping about "no guidance." Let’s correct the record before Cedric takes the stage Monday at 11:15 AM PT.
1. Why "No Guidance" is the Ultimate Bear Trap
Cedric Francois doesn’t provide formal guidance because APLS is a hyper-growth engine, not a legacy pharma company.
The Strategic Advantage: By not capping expectations with a "conservative" number, Cedric leaves the door open for massive beats. The shorts are betting on a "miss," but they’re ignoring the
$178M in U.S. net product sales already on the books.
2. EMPAVELI: The New Revenue Pillar
Bears are still stuck on SYFOVRE safety from 2023. They’re ignoring the July 2025 FDA approval for EMPAVELI in C3G/IC-MPGN.
Every 1,000 patients in this rare kidney space represents ~
$500M in revenue.
The Result: If Cedric even hints at the 2026 adoption rate of EMPAVELI being ahead of schedule, the shorts have zero protection.
