Jul. 30 at 2:51 PM
$AAUCF We are buyers of Allied Gold
$AAUC both yesterday and today
Yesterday the company announced a break up of the takeover by Zijin Gold at C
$44. The Zijin announced bought in deal of 10% stake in
$AAUC .
After the break up
$AAUC is tradin now at C
$24.4 right now - 50 discount to the takeover price. That is creazy valuation:
-
$AAUC is US
$2.3 bln mkt cap (EV US
$1.95 bln).
- Hannam Research estimates 2026 EBITDA is at US
$1.25 bln and 2027 ebitda at US
$1.83 bln - due to strong production ramp up this year
-
$AAUC is trading at EV/EBITDA multiple 1.56 and 1.06 for 2026 and 2027, respectively
-
$AAUC is very well run. The stock will recover. Hannam has a target price of C
$49, Cannacord had PT of C
$55 before the takeover was announced.
- The risk 30% of EBITDA is generated in Mali. The CEO has been very effective operator in Mali, being the first to sign the new licence deal with the Mali government, superior to what the other sign. Still, Mali is a risk.
https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/bdeab1b5-62ac-488d-b9b5-b95d13ada08f