Jan. 8 at 2:26 PM
$XLO needs
$1 compliance by 3/30/26, live short interest 24.13%, CTB 18.05, LP crawling all over
Pre-funded warrants (mostly
$0.01 strike): ~132M
Low-strike 0.75 warrants (A/B/C): ~133M
Total derivative overhang: ~265M shares
“Economic” fully diluted share count: ~330M+ vs today’s 67.5M.
OS: 67.54M
Float: 62.63M
Market Cap: ~
$48.3M
Key Dilution Weapons Active
• June 2025 Unit Deal (Leerink)
– 66.68M common @
$0.75
– 66.68M Series A warrants @
$0.75 (5-yr)
– 66.68M Series B warrants @
$0.75 (short-dated, into Dec 2025)
– 66.68M Series C warrants @
$0.75 (into Dec 2026)
– Matching 66.68M pre-funded warrants @
$0.01 (0.75 cost)
–
$50.0M gross proceeds
• Pre-Funded Warrant Stack (functionally common)
– June 2025 pre-funded: 66.68M @
$0.01 (paid
$0.75)
– December 2025 pre-funded: 40.01M @
$0.01 (0.75 cost)
– March 2024 PIPE pre-funded: 19.51M @
$0.01 (0.64 cost, Bain/Rock Springs/Gilead)
– December 2024 Gilead pre-funded: 6.09M @
$1.04
– Total pre-funded overhang ~132M shares, essentially already “paid for.”
• ATM + Shelf (Dry Powder)
– March 2025 ATM (Leerink):
$50.0M capacity, unused
– March 2025 Shelf:
$50.0M raisable; prior shelves still largely unused as well
– No baby shelf restriction (float value >
$50M), so they can tap size if they want.
Completed Dilutive Events (most relevant recent)
December 2, 2025 – Warrant Exercise
• 48.21M shares @
$0.75 (Series C)
•
$36.16M raised
June 2, 2025 – Underwritten S-3 (Leerink unit deal)
• 66.68M shares @
$0.75
• 200.03M warrants (A/B/C) + 66.68M pre-funded
•
$50.0M raised
February 10, 2025 – AbbVie PIPE
• 4.35M shares @
$2.30
•
$10.0M raised
December 19, 2024 – Gilead PIPE
• 7.85M shares @
$1.04 (+ pre-funded structure via Dec 2024 warrants)
•
$8.17M raised
March 28, 2024 – Bain / Rock Springs / Gilead
• 17.57M shares @
$0.64 (Bain, Rock Springs)
• 6.85M shares @
$1.97 (Gilead)
•
$24.8M raised +
$30M upfront from Gilead license
Most Dangerous Instruments
• Pre-funded warrants @
$0.01
– ~132M shares at effectively zero incremental cost.
– Economically the same as common stock that can hit the tape whenever there’s liquidity.
• 0.75 Strike Warrant Stack (Series A/B/C)
– ~133M warrants @
$0.75 still outstanding.
– Once stock sustains >
$0.75 with volume, every rally is monetizable via cheap paper.
Deal Memory (Price Levels That Matter)
$16.00 – IPO (2021)
$2.30 – AbbVie PIPE (Feb 2025)
$1.97 – Gilead PIPE (Mar 2024)
$1.04 – Gilead Dec 2024 follow-on / pre-funded cost
$0.75 – June 2025 recap unit price (shares + A/B/C + pre-funded)
$0.64 – Bain / Rock Springs PIPE
$0.70–
$0.75 – Current trading band vs warrant wall
