Dec. 12 at 3:21 PM
$TSNDF
Below is the same §280E expense framework, applied specifically to TerrAscend (TRSSF / TSND), with realistic, order-of-magnitude savings if marijuana is reclassified (Schedule III) and 280E disappears.
⸻
1️⃣ Expenses TerrAscend cannot fully deduct today (280E)
These are normal operating costs that most legal businesses deduct — TerrAscend largely cannot:
🚫 Currently NON-deductible (or heavily limited)
• Retail & corporate payroll
• Dispensary staff, managers, HQ finance, compliance, HR
• Payroll taxes & benefits
• Employer FICA, health insurance, workers’ comp
• Rent
• Dispensaries, offices, warehouses (non-production portion)
• Utilities
• Power, water, internet for retail & admin
• Marketing & brand
• Digital ads, loyalty programs, promotions
• Professional fees
• Legal, audit, accounting, regulatory consulting
• Insurance
• Product liability, D&O, property, casualty
• Security
• Guards, armored transport, surveillance systems
• IT & compliance software
• Seed-to-sale systems, POS, cybersecurity
• Interest expense
• Extremely expensive cannabis debt
• State cannabis license fees
✅ What is deductible today
• COGS only
• Cultivation labor
• Growing inputs
• Manufacturing costs
• Packaging tied directly to product
⸻
2️⃣ TerrAscend: rough financial context (rounded)
Using recent public filings as a baseline (rounded for clarity):
• Annual revenue: ~
$300–330M
• Adjusted EBITDA: ~
$70–90M
• Cash taxes paid: far higher than normal due to 280E
Under 280E, TerrAscend is often taxed as if it earns
$150–200M+, not its real economic profit.
⸻
3️⃣ Estimated tax impact before vs after reclassification
📉 TODAY (with 280E)
• Effective tax rate: 55–75%
• Cash taxes often:
$30–50M+ per year
• Free cash flow: compressed or negative
📈 AFTER reclassification (Schedule III)
• Normal corporate tax rate: ~21–26%
• Cash taxes drop to: ~
$12–20M
• Annual tax savings: ~
$20–35M
👉 That is REAL CASH, not accounting tricks.
⸻
4️⃣ What
$20–35M per year means for TerrAscend
That savings could:
• 💰 Eliminate dilution
• 📉 Pay down high-interest debt
• 🏗 Expand NJ / PA / MD footprint
• 📈 Turn EBITDA into true free cash flow
• 🧲 Attract institutions currently barred by weak cash metrics
⸻
5️⃣ Valuation impact (simple but powerful)
If TerrAscend saves
$25M/year:
• At just 8× FCF multiple →
$200M value creation
• That’s often multiple times the current market cap
This is why 280E repeal is a balance-sheet event, not a headline.