Feb. 20 at 5:45 PM
$TBCH interesting setup: buyback + tiny tradeable float + big SI
TLDR:
$TBCH looks like a mechanical share supply/demand setup. Effective tradeable float is ~6M shares, SI is ~3M (50% of tradeable float), and mgmt has said they’ll lever up to ~2.0x net leverage to buy back stock.
Math (overview):
• Shares O/S (FD): ~19.3M
• “Sticky” LT holders / insiders / index: ~13.2M
o Management, a PE sponsor, and Index funds alone own ~8M shares
• Effective tradable float: ~6.1M
• Short interest: ~3.0M => ~50% of effective float
• Leverage plan: 2.0x on
$60M 2026 EBITDA =
$120M net debt capacity
• Current net debt ~
$20M =>
$100M incremental buyback
• At
$16/share (35% premium to today’s price): ~5.6M shares (~93% of effective float)
Why it matters: if the company becomes the biggest buy in the stock with limited supply, shorts will be forced to cover into a shrinking float. Any “good” quarter can move the stock fast. (See CRSR – a peer - which rocketed up 60% on the back of strong earnings)
