Jul. 18 at 7:52 PM
$EROC $FLNC $STEM — one trade, three layers of the AI power buildout. EROC makes the electrons, FLNC stores them, STEM runs software on top. All three round-tripped: FLNC
$31→
$13 (52w low), STEM
$32→
$6.63, EROC broke its
$21.50 IPO →
$10.78 in 5 wks.
EROC (Enchanted Rock rebrand): best business — owner-operator gas microgrids, rev +42.5%,
$1.3B backlog (+779% = 7x rev). Worst setup — 15x sales on the real ~
$2.9B FD cap (not the
$520M screens show), ~90% locked till Dec, first-ever print 8/11 at ±23% implied. CEO = Carrington, ex-Stem.
FLNC: bear thesis paid from low-
$30S. Now 0.43x its
$5.6B backlog, 2 hyperscaler MSAs. Last bear leg = the 70% back-half guide cracking in Aug.
STEM: 52% GM, EBITDA+, zero growth. ~
$56M cap < its own
$61M ARR, ~
$380M converts on top. Workout, not a stock.
Businesses: EROC > FLNC > STEM. Longs today: none. EROC = watchlist after 8/11 + the Dec lockup flush. Discipline > conviction.
