Feb. 15 at 1:27 PM
$STEM
I’ve done a deep dive into the cash flow and would appreciate your input in case I’ve overlooked anything.
Focusing on this years cash outflows after operational cash flow:
Q1–Q3 debt repayments:
$10.9 M → annualized: ≈
$14.4 M
Q1–Q3 CapEx:
$5.675 M → annualized: ≈
$7.6 M
The balance sheet shows about
$14 M in financing obligations (current), which is consistent with 2025 numbers.
In this case if OCF outlook for 2026 would only be 0, total cash burn would be around
$22 M.
Hopefully, they will target higher OCF. Based on this analysis, it seems there is sufficient runway to improve numbers without needing to raise equity before 2028 or preferably 2030.
And if they raise equity in 2030, this would also improve balance sheet and reduce annual interest expenses by around
$22 M. So, if they achieve positive fcf first and then raise equity to pay down debt, I think it wouldn’t be a bad outcome, assuming the share price is high enough to make the raise effective.
Am I missing anything here?
