Jul. 20 at 8:25 PM
$SPY We all know we're at the cusp of a pullback, and the month of July can be perceived as a Wyckoff distribution. But were we at the UT or UTAD stage?
In both scenarios, my 100% conviction target for a pullback is the 607 area, where I would sell ALL my green bear lots, and at 600-602 another batch of bears. BTD? Yes, on my fav ETFs like
$SOXL $SPYU $SVIX at first.
Now keep in mind, this would be the first pullback, expecting more through Aug/Sept/Oct, with a likely bottom at the convergence of the 200SMA around 580-582.
Also keep in mind after this pullback, we could shoot as high as 650. CTA's are behind right now and are looking for any excuse to jump in hard and BTD. A manufactured pullback like this would be preferred.
Would expect VIX to top out around 22.5-25 on such a pullback.
If scenario 2 plays out, I will be even more aggressively adding to my bears over 630.
Watch the VIX, P/C ratio for additional clues.
Also,
$NFLX tends to set the tone for the rest of the MAG7 overall.
