Jul. 24 at 8:03 PM
This ultra-detailed, 109-slide thesis includes extensive commentary and analysis specific to
$SDHC and
$NVR.
https://x.com/investor321123/status/1932790256732131650
The deck is a buy thesis on
$GRBK, but leverages a systematic data-driven 20-year study of the entire homebuilder sector to support the argument. While the deck primarily advocates for a long thesis on GRBK, it comes to different conclusions about its two land-light opposites in SDHC and NVR. It makes the case that SDHC should perform well, while simultaneously implying that NVR's earnings growth and risk profile over the next 5 years are both likely to fall dramatically short of what its elevated P/E multiple suggests.
See slides 15, 39-50, and 59-70 for the analysis most relevant to SDHC and NVR. There's also a section focused entirely on SDHC and NVR on slides 106-108, with another focused solely on NVR on slides 91-93. This screenshot from the deck shows a snapshot comparison of key metrics for all 18 public homebuilders:
