Apr. 17 at 2:05 PM
$MSMGF Updated Valuation Framework (Grounded in Current Drill Footprint)
I rebuilt my model after reviewing the latest presentation and drill data.
This is based on what appears reasonable today, not blue-sky assumptions.
Core Assumptions
• Fully diluted shares: ~249.8M
• Cesium price:
$150K–
$200K/tonne (range used)
• Recovery: 60–70%
• Payable: ~90%
• EBITDA margin: 35–45%
• Initial mine life: ~5 years
Modeled Scenarios (Based on Current Implied Footprint)
Bear Case
• ~75k tonnes @ ~2.5%
• ~
$0.40–
$0.60/share
Base Case
• ~125k tonnes @ ~3.0%
• ~
$0.90–
$1.30/share
Strong Case
• ~200k tonnes @ ~3.0–3.25%
• ~
$1.80–
$2.40/share
Upside Case (requires continued expansion)
• 300k–350k+ tonnes @ 3%+
• ~
$3.00–
$4.50/share
Probability-Weighted Outcome
→ ~
$1.10–
$1.40/share
Current price: ~
$0.09
Important Context
• There is no resource estimate yet
• Continuity and total tonnage are not defined
• Metallurgy has not been fully demonstrated
• Timeline to production remains uncertain
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