Jun. 16 at 6:04 PM
$MRAAY
https://open.substack.com/pub/tsukichegos/p/the-backwards-bet?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=79zrt3
How the market priced the two champions of the capacitor supercycle upside-down — and why the cleanest way to be long Murata may be to be short Taiyo Yuden
It started, as these things often do, with a notice in an inbox.
A components maker's price letter, forwarded and screenshotted across trading desks and group chats this spring, laid out the damage in tidy bullet points. Circuit boards up 70 percent. Solder up 60. And the line that made everyone sit up straight: capacitors, up 200 to 300 percent. Within days the screenshots had company — a leaked sell-side deck calling for a multi-year shortage in multilayer ceramic capacitors through 2028, server demand compounding at better than 150 percent a year, average selling prices climbing by half. On X, the retail bulls finished the job. Long Murata. Long Samsung. Long the whole ceramic complex.
