Jul. 17 at 8:16 PM
$LUCD
For a company to have a
$1.5 billion market cap (+/-
$10 a share for LUCD w/150mm shares outstanding) with a 90% gross profit margin, revenue is likely to be between
$75 million to
$150 million, with a best estimate of
$100 million (assuming a P/S ratio of 15), the multiple is such because of the 90% gross profit margin.
And unlike what Lplate keeps saying "no diagnostic company has that multiple"… is because no diagnostic company has the gross profit margin of lucid (because half of the test is a medical device, EsoCheck)
$100 million in revenue means 50,000 test +/-
$2000 a test…that's a joke with medicare approval. Of the 62 million Americans covered by Medicare 9+ million are appropriate candidates for an EsoGaurd test)
If LUCD get just .55% (50,000/9,000,000)of the eligible Medicare patients in for EsoGuard...that's
$100MM in revenue and a market Cap of
$1.5 billion and a stock price of
$10 +/-
