May. 29 at 1:29 PM
$LUCD Just some basic numbers that keep me in this stock: The VA contract has 9 million potential patients. Of those patients, approximately 70% are over 50, nearly all of them are male, and most are white. Let's bring it down to 60% of the total number of potential VA healthcare members are potential users of Esocheck/Esoguard. That means that if only 1% of the total patient pool actually take the test each year, LUCD would have 9,000,000x0.6x0.01 = 54,000 tests. 54,000 tests at
$1,900 of revenue per test equals
$102M in annual revenue. At a 5x multiplier, the market cap would be
$500M. That's 2.5 times the current share price. Say there's some more dilution down the road, it'll still double if only 1% of the patient pool actually takes the test. That's not considering Medicare, the private payer networks, or other revenue streams (which are 10x bigger in aggregate than the VA). With all that said, I give a
$3B to
$5B market cap estimate within 2 years. That's
$15-25/share.