Jul. 16 at 7:59 PM
$AVXL Martin Shkreli and Adam Feuerstein and Jean Fonteneau for you old timers have a similar strategy when it comes to CNS drugs, and Alzheimer’s in particular: Short the field. There’s a 99% failure rate for Alzheimer’s. It’s a smart bet, except for that one time that it’s not. If there are asymmetrical wagers, that one loss could negate dozens of wins. It’s like betting on the Washington Generals to beat the Harlem Globetrotters.
The problem for the short thesis is that while Alzheimer’s is incredibly difficult to treat once it’s progressed, advancements in early detection coupled with upstream receptor activation could wipe out all their
$SAVA and
$INMB gains. They’re no longer betting against the science; they’re betting against the EMA’s perceived immediate need for a cheap, safe alternative to the infusion drugs.
That’s not a bet I’d feel comfortable taking. I’d have felt a lot better about shorting back when people were saying it would never submit to a reputable journal.
