Mar. 26 at 6:34 PM
$INKT Let’s say the PII Gastric cancer trial collaboration results are stellar and a PIII worldwide trial commences before YE. What is the Net Present Value of a successful PII trial to Mink moving forward into PIII?
AgenT-797 Gastric Cancer
NPV
$1,072,166,897
Disc Finance Rate 30%
Investment Cost (
$100.0M)
Profit Streams
Yr ‘29 -
$1.0B
Yr ‘30 -
$1.379.3B
Yr ‘31 -
$1.870.3B
Yr ‘32 -
$2.465.7B
Assumption 1.
The global Gastric Cancer market was
$5.3B in ‘24, and has a CAGR of 13%. AgenT-797 is FDA approved by ‘29
Assumption 2.
Big Pharma’s Cost-of-Capital is 30% and this will be our NPV Discount Rate
Assumption 3.
A Global PIII trial will cost
$100.M
Assumption 4
Global GC commercialized market penetration in ‘29 starts at 10.0% and increases each year 2.5%
Conclusion:
The above generated NPV would need to be cut in half to account for a 50% failed PIII clinical trial rate, and then cut half again to share with Agenus
