Dec. 1 at 12:18 PM
Mizuho🏁
$AXGN Outperform/
$40
$SYK $BAX $IART $MDXG
Mizuho said—Our OP rating on AXGN is predicated on:
1) favorable setup into the upcoming BLA PDUFA date (Dec 5) where we expect a positive outcome,
2) core extremity channel checks that point toward a potential +10% uplift in Avance utilization post-BLA approval,
3) Mizuho Americas November 2025 breast survey findings that forecasts Avance mix in reconstruction surgeries to increase +30% over the next two years,
4) untapped upside opportunity in breast augmentation where nerve injury incidence sits in 10-15% range, and
5) attractive call option in prostate cancer that could drive +
$100MN of incremental peak sales (+35% uplift to 2026 base).
Our
$40 PT prices AXGN shares at 5.0x our blended 2-year sales outlook ('26E-'27E) while our
$50 bull case contemplates higher share-capture scenarios in Breast & Prostate.
