May. 28 at 2:40 PM
$EHTH $GOCO. EHTH keeps on making upward tail revenue adjustments. Nearly 4 years now. They did this despite a 13 decline in their estimated MA members of 690,000 at year end to 601,000 at end Q1. How do you miss an estimate in 3 months by 13% and still have a positive tail revenue adjustments suggesting your historical LTV was too low. A big head scratcher considering EHTH never recorded an adjustment like its competitors. LTVs disclosed put all other nonMA on an MA equivalent basis and this makes for an MA equivalent of about 800,000 estimated active members. Also the CR is
$925 million. the CR is undiscounted. Thats
$1,156 per active member. GTCR paid
$625 per active member on Tranzact. That would suggest the CR on a discounted basis is only worth
$500 million. If you adjust the Book Value to this discounted basis CR then it’s worth
$156 million. It’s trading at
$134 million. That’s pretty darn close. Seems folks investing have really sharpened their pencils on
$EHTH
