Jan. 2 at 7:30 PM
$FET 2026 predictions with probabilities:
- scenario 1 (60%) - much higher, keep bridging gap to peer group valuations below, rig count generally flat in 1H. I think we start to see US production roll over shortly, need it to happen meaningfully to trigger price. See modest activity growth in 2H, could push to 2027. PT
$55-70.
- scenario 2 (20%) - macro/weather pressures commodity prices - flat rig count in FY 2026, further coiling upside spring. FET results should hold with backlog. Buybacks and relative valuation still help. PT
$45-60.
- scenario 3 (10%) - US production rolls more quickly, Russia + Venezuela + Iran geopolitical risk has real impact on supply, commodity prices move up earlier in 2026, we start pricing in a a growth cycle. Can easily trade up over 10x EBITDA with momentum and price in future growth. PT
$70-
$90
- scenario 4 (10%) - some black/grey swan pressures market. Oil doesn’t move. Pushes growth scenarios out. PT
$35-45. Buybacks mitigating pressure.
