Apr. 2 at 9:11 PM
$FET this is the way to gauge future activity. Average prices over 3-5 years look marginally better but not incredible. Need back end of the curve to come up. Also this is very skewed by the first few months currently. So if you decide to drill today, by the time you complete the well and see first production is probably 6-9 months - for shale wells. The oil price pain is coming, but I don't expect crazy rig increases until you see
$75-80 3-5 year averages.
I'll caveat that with the fact it's very acreage specific. If I have Permian ground that can offer me a 1-year payback at
$75 I probably roll the dice and drill now. So I *think* we are probably close to/at the point of incremental gains. But we're a ways out from everybody and their brother drilling wells.
https://x.com/WAR527/status/2039810532966850851?s=20
