Aug. 6 at 9:00 PM
$FET I’m just excited to see how many shares they bought back… Will be very surprised if the number is under 300k (
$5-6MM worth).
The next 2-3 ERs are all going to come down to how much cash they can generate…. And all i mean by that is how many shares they can ultimately buyback while OFS earning bottom.
Net debt was
$146MM at 3/31…. My guess is it’s closer to
$135MM tomorrow - EV ~
$365-370MM
Trialing adjusted EBITDA at 3/31 was ~
$94MM. Thats probably
$86-
$90 now based on Q1 guide for Q2…. So need to be at
$129-
$135MM net debt to keep buybacks rolling steady.
My guess is we see a big(ish) EPS beat purely off of FX gains during Q2…. I mean the headline estimates are shit but book to bill was good in Q1 so that could be solid as well.
But we all know buybacks are the key - FET +25% YTD, OIH down 13%, NOV down 17%, etc., etc.
FET generates CF countercyclically so I feel pretty damn good about getting the share count lowered substantially while activity bottoms. Slingshot engaged…
