Jun. 18 at 4:46 PM
$FET 👇 just thinking about some comments I made in a thread below
If you thought
$30 in 2023 wasnt worth selling what is the equivalent price today?
All else equal, by YE FET has generated somewhere close to
$150MM in cash since then (~
$12/share at today’s shares outstanding)
So that
$30 is now
$42.
And that gives you zero valuation increase for doubling EBITDA and now having a FCF run rate of ~
$40-60mm near the bottom of the OFS cycle. It also gives zero valuation impact for extending debt maturity and lowering absolute debt levels materially.
Logically, that makes zero sense - that would be the conclusion.
Between bond holders and variperm holders selling shares I think we can explain price action divergence from logic when you throw OFS activity falling and oil price pressure on top. But just cuz you can explain it doesn’t make it logical
Hence why i added a shitload under
$25, even more under
$20, and even more under
$15… logic shall return, at least that’s my position.
