Aug. 13 at 5:59 PM
$FET some thoughts based on conversations with some other equity holders following ER and the numbers presented.
They had
$68.7mm of remaining repurchase authorization at 6/30, per the call bought another
$5MM in July =
$63.5mm remaining at 7/31. Targeting
$25MM more through YE,
$38.7mm remaining at 12/31/2025.
11.9mm shares outstanding as of August 1st 2025(p.1 of 10-Q)
I *think* they’ll be lucky to get that
$25MM in at
$25 average, if they get avg.of
$27.75 they can get 900k shares, 11 million outstanding at YE. You still have
$38.7mm to get to work in 2026…. Impossible to know what they get them for but I feel like they should get another 1 million shares at
$38 average… so for argument sake, you can have 10 million shares outstanding by the end of 2026. Net debt should be
$100-
$110MM by YE25, would be
$70-80 at YE26.
Even at
$50/share you have
$500MM equity value and 80mm debt =
$580MM EV - still under 7x the
$85MM EBITDA this year. And should be on the upcycle…
