Jan. 27 at 8:32 AM
$COPA $COPX
Previously built a position in silver around
$49, based on tightening supply and asymmetric upside. That thesis has largely played out.
Now shifting focus to copper.
Multiple forecasts (S&P Global, Bernstein, BHP) show structural copper deficits from ~2027 onward. Demand is projected to grow from ~28 Mt (2025) to ~42 Mt by 2040, driven by electrification, grid upgrades, EVs and AI/data centers.
Mined + recycled supply is expected to peak around ~2030 (~34 Mt) and then stagnate, constrained by long mine development timelines (10–15 years), declining ore grades and permitting challenges.
Copper intensity is rising, substitutes are limited, and recycling alone won’t close the gap.
Long copper as a multi-year structural thesis.
As long as there’s no alternative to copper: This is not a short-term trade, but a multi-year structural supply/demand imbalance.