Sep. 4 at 10:59 PM
$CNTX One more post before going back on break to take care of my newborn. The science of CT-202, which we acquired from BCAB/BioAtla, has been clinically validated by BioAtla, on 2 different occasions.
- BA3182: BioAtla had another pH dependent TCE that targeted EpCAM. Because BioAtla was running out of cash, they forced a catalyst and released very early data, probably to boost stock price and to raise money. But the data was not as impressive as it could be because the dosing was well below the preclinical maximum effective dose. They showed data at 0.6 mg, but had dosing planned for 1.2 mg and then 1.2 mg -> 10 mg.
Nonetheless, the data showed excellent safety, which is to be expected when binding strongly to acidic part of tumors and very very weakly outside of tumor. It had a 70%+ DCR (Disease Control Rate), and 1 partial response. Keep in mind this was for dosing well below preclinical maximum effective dose. As a comparison, for tarlatamab, an FDA approved solid tumor TCE, a partial response was seen at 0.3 mg, with maximal responses achieved between 3–100 mg. So ORR was likely going to be much higher if they showed data at higher dosing.
- BA3021: It's an ADC but also pH dependent and showed 40% ORR for Q2W dosing and 38% ORR overall, 100% disease control rate, and overall survival of 9 months.
So yeah...sucks for BCAB, but their technology clearly works. Next year, Im excited to see a great safety profile for CT-202 targeting Nectin-4 and a solid ORR with 2 week dosing where T cell exhaustion will be less of an issue. If they have solid safety and over 30% ORR, it should be sought after as a combo therapy and monotherapy by BP. Padcev the multibillion dollar nectin-4 approved for combotherapy with keytruda, has a 44% ORR but major toxicity issues.
Combined with good CTIM-76 data, CNTX could fetch a very good BO premium or partnership. CNTX just needs one hit, but I say they have a good chance at hitting both next year. Share price is going to trade at a much higher multiple from these levels after re-rating and cash raise.
Stay patient. Dead money for now, but a lot to look forward to soon.
