Aug. 13 at 11:31 PM
$CAAS The market is waiting for management to commit to a dividend or buyback rather than saying, “we’re thinking about it.” When that happens, the stock gaps up very hard. The only question is timing so I wait and add on weakness once again. What I’d also point out is that management has historically been very conservative with guidance, and H2 is seasonally the stronger half by a wide margin.
$850 million in revenue should now be viewed as the floor, with
$860–885 million for the year looking increasingly realistic. They have a good view already since we have half done. This implies H2 gross profit of
$100+ million, net income of
$35+ million, and EPS of
$1.15+. For full-year 2026, that gets you to EPS of
$2.15+ (~2x P/E), over
$16/share in tangible assets, and
$60+ million in cash flow given that much of the capex was front-loaded as a result of Brazil. Those are wild numbers and disappointed that management did not pull the trigger today.
