Dec. 30 at 6:51 PM
$CAAS With the Cayman Islands move now done I am torn on what comes next in early 2026 ----- 1) take-private, 2)
$1.00+ special dividend or 3) buyout by one of the big China car players? They say the Cayman Islands move was for taxes but willing to bet 99 to 1 it was for one of these three reasons. I am now holding a very decent position now just above
$4 avg. after months of cheap bids (second largest China position). Any of these three items will take us to immediately to
$6 + fat and now we just wait to see since I can easily argue for all three to happen shortly. My bet is special dividend given we have way more cash compared to the last special dividend but a buyout seems just as likely. The tell should be the news on the new repurchase agreement coming shortly. This should be a great play from these levels in 2026 and nice buffer on the downside if the market gets ugly.
