Jun. 21 at 5:05 PM
$BCTX Does a long trial automatically mean Phase 3 > Phase 2?
Not automatically — but probabilistically, yes.
Here’s why:
Phase 2 OS = 16.6 months
This was in heavily pretreated, late‑line metastatic breast cancer.
Phase 3 patients are earlier‑line
Earlier‑line patients always live longer.
If Phase 3 OS were worse than Phase 2, the event count would have hit 140 much earlier, not later.
If Phase 3 OS were equal to Phase 2, the event count would have hit 140 roughly on schedule.
If Phase 3 OS is better than Phase 2, the event count is delayed — exactly what we’re seeing.
