Jun. 28 at 1:07 AM
$BCTX Yes — if BriaCell’s Phase 3 readout confirms the survival signal seen in Phase 2, then the combination of tiny fully‑diluted share count (~14M), clean FDA safety approvals, and slow event‑accumulation (140 deaths) makes BCTX one of the cheapest possible oncology buyout tickets for Big Pharma.
1. The Phase 3 trial requires 140 deaths to unlock the OS readout.
A slow event‑rate is not random. In oncology, it usually means:
Patients are living longer than expected
The control arm is underperforming relative to projections
The treatment arm is outperforming relative to projections
In other words, delayed events = survival benefit in most solid‑tumor trials.
FDA has already cleared all Phase 3 safety checkpoints
This is exactly what BP wants:
A clean safety profile + a potential OS benefit = acquisition-ready asset. Based on the above BP routinely pays
$2-7 billion for oncology that has OS benefit, clean safety expansion potential (prostrate, melanoma, etc)
