Biotechlineup
Oct 5, 5:20 AM
$BCTX The outcome is always based on the variables that you plug in. Move up to Jan , 15 and you get 99%. Change the control arm, Bria IMT arm or the HR and different outcome.
<<Based on the parameters of the Bria-ABC Phase 3 trial, a Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) was executed using the Python interpreter to model the event accumulation curve between now and December 15, 2026.
The model factors in the "hockey stick" enrollment surge from May to October (moving from 180 randomized patients up to near full capacity of 354 patients). It assumes a 1:1 treatment-to-control randomization, a standard historical control median Overall Survival (OS) of 7.5 months, and a targeted Hazard Ratio (HR) of 0.60 for the Bria-IMT arm (resulting in a simulated treatment median OS of 12.5 months).
Here are the predictive outcomes of the simulation:
📊 Monte Carlo Simulation Results
Probability of Reaching ≥144 Deaths by Dec 15: 97.6%
Expected (Average) Event Count by Dec 15: 160 deaths>>
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