Jul. 6 at 6:41 PM
BCTX: Am I crazy or is the silence the most bullish signal possible?
Event-driven Phase 3 in metastatic breast cancer. The trial ends at 144 deaths. Guided H1-2026, now delayed. In an event-driven trial, delayed events = patients living longer than modeled. DSMB greenlit 6x in a row, May 2026. No concerns.
They would pull the plug if it wasn't working. Phase 2 showed 16.6 months median OS vs 7-11 months standard chemo.
$27M market cap. FDA Fast Track. Nature Medicine "11 trials that will shape medicine in 2026". 70+ sites including Mayo Clinic, Cedars-Sinai, Penn/Abramson, Yale, Emory, Dartmouth.
Last company that ran a similar play (Immunomedics/ASCENT, same population, same endpoint) got bought by Gilead for 21B,
$88/share cash. Either I'm making a massive logical error or this is genuinely asymmetric. Tell me where I'm wrong. Full DD in images. Not financial advice. Long
$BCTX. Binary bet, you can lose 100%.
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