May. 1 at 7:17 PM
$AVLN Allocated in Avalyn at the
$18.00 IPO pricing yesterday. Tape ran as high as
$30.20 on the debut and is currently churning in the upper
$20's. I'm holding this one... not a flip. I don't like selling immediately after an allocation. It's bad form professionally, but more importantly, I think the upside here--longer-term--is substantially larger than a day-one pop.
Why this one matters to me:
The Esbriet story. InterMune built pirfenidone into the dominant IPF therapy, Roche paid
$8.3 billion in cash to acquire the company at a 63% premium to the unaffected price, and it became one of my best biotech trades of the last decade. AP01 is an inhaled formulation of the same molecule -- pirfenidone -- designed to deliver the drug directly to the lungs, enhance local efficacy, and reduce the systemic side effects that limit dosing on the oral version. The science is sound and the unmet need is real.
What bolsters my conviction further:
Frank Salisbury, who led the U.S. launch and served as National Head of Sales for Esbriet at InterMune /Genentech, just joined Avalyn as SVP of Commercial. Having someone from the original pirfenidone commercialization team -- someone who saw that molecule through to a multi-billion-dollar exit -- now running commercial strategy for the inhaled version is the kind of pedigree detail that the market doesn't price in early enough.
Catalysts ahead:
Phase 2b (MIST) data for AP01 in progressive pulmonary fibrosis and the Phase 2 (AURA-IPF) readout for AP02, which is an inhaled formulation of nintedanib. Both are significant de-risking events. Expect the usual post-IPO chop to continue until the options chain opens up, likely early next week.
For those who follow me for biotech, I'd wait for this to come in before initiating. But read the S-1. The inhaled delivery platform, the management pedigree, and the pipeline optionality make this one worth understanding now, not after the data drops.
Positioned for the long haul.
Not financial or trading advice... just sharing what I own and why. DYOR.